2006 personal emissions

The provisional figures for total 2006 UK GHG emissions (published 29th March 2007) show a rise of about 1.25% over the preceding year. The extremely mild autumn means that the temperature adjusted increase would be slightly greater.

In the press release accompanying the data, David Miliband, UK Environment Secretary, says

In 2005, household carbon dioxide emission decreased 4.6% on the previous year, and I'm hopeful that when the final 2006 figures are available that there may be evidence of a continuing trend as more people make changes to their everyday lives

He perhaps should not have been so coy. The Department of Trade and Industry published figures on domestic energy use on the same day as the GHG became available. These figures show that UK domestic household use of gas fell by about 3.6%. Electricity increased by 1.1%. In total, the decrease was about 1.7%, before taking into account the higher carbon content of electricity in 2006 compared to previous years. The actual decrease is likely to be about 1.6%.

This improvement will have partly been driven by the mild autumn, although consumption was also lower in the summer. Is this the result of a change in consumer attitudes as Mr Miliband claims? Well, it could be, but it could also be the effect of the steep rise in the prices for gas in 2006. This deterrent to consumption is now unravelling as retail gas prices fall steeply.

We should also look at the personal consumption of motor fuels, data for which was also published today. This shows the CO2 from petrol and diesel bought from forecourts rising by about 3.6% in 2006. I presume that this rise partly reflects the real-terms fall in petrol prices during the year.

Taken as a whole, and of course before including aviation, personal CO2 emissions rose by about 0.5% in 2006.