2007 Energy White Paper
A 350 page White Paper does not mean that the government is being open. May 2007 Comment on the Energy White Paper has focused almost entirely on the government's decision not to discourage electricity companies from applying to build new nuclear power stations. Alistair Darling will have been relieved by this distraction: the underlying figures in the White Paper show an alarming deterioration in the government's own forecasts for greenhouse gas emissions. So far, commentators have failed to notice this. The previous Energy White Paper was published in March 2003. In this document the government specified a target for reducing emissions. It said that it expected UK emissions to be 135 million tonnes of carbon by 2020. The government proposed measures to reduce this figure to between 110 and 120 million tonnes, an 11-19% reduction. If matters had gone according to plan, the 2007 White Paper should have reported on the progress towards the 2020 figures laid out four years ago. Unsurprisingly perhaps, this week's document does no such thing. It barely mentions the 2003 paper and most certainly does not assess whether the 110-120 million tonnes figure is going to be achieved. Instead, the 2007 document offers a brand new estimate of the likely 2020 emissions. The figure is now 151.2 million tonnes of carbon. Let us be clear what this means – instead of expecting to achieve a reduction to between 110 and 120 million tonnes, the White Paper sees a figure 12% higher than in 2003. A substantial fraction of this increase in the forecast has occurred since the Green Paper of summer 2006. Four years of active policy making, endless initiatives and international conferences too numerous to count have totally failed. The government is finally acknowledging that it has lost control of emissions growth. Nevertheless, the raft of new policy proposals continues. The 2003 measures have failed but about 50 new ideas are floated, up from about a summary 5 four years ago. In desperation, the White Paper throws every scheme it can into the reduction pot. There are so many initiatives that no-one can possibly assess their reasonableness or efficacy. This can be no accident. The proposed net impact of these measures, as might be predicted, is to push 2020 forecast emissions down by 32 million tonnes. Perhaps this is coincidence, but this leaves the 2020 prediction at 119 million tonnes, just below the top of the range that the government set out in 2003. And there is no reason to suppose that the new wheezes will be any more successful than the smart ideas proposed just four years ago. Whether or not we get more nuclear power is neither here nor there. The first of the new nuclear stations could not be ready until early in the 2020s and will only marginally affect the UK's emissions. The underlying problem is not whether or not wind is better than atoms, or whether planning authority should be taken away from local government. It is whether UK politicians have the insight and courage to recognise the seriousness of the climate change problem. The attempt to disguise the current government's failures by using a 350 page White Paper to create an impenetrable fog of confusion shames all those associated with it. The situation is desperate, and the sooner we acknowledge it, the better. Chris Goodall c.goodall@which.net 07767 386696 23rd May 2007
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